The influence of classical mythologyYou should have approximately a dozen citations and a bibliography at the end listing the sources you have consulted. You may use any citation and bibliographical format you like as long as you are consistent. Develop a thesis. Construct an outline. I can provide examples to write about.

Geography 217: Worksheet                                      Name

Weather Analysis/Hurricanes                                  Date: 12/1/2020

Thunderstorms/Tornadoes                                      50 points

Weather Analysis: Part I (25 points)

 According to Lutgens and Tarbuck, several weather maps/charts are important for weather analysis and subsequent forecasting.  What are the chief attributes of associated with the 200/300 mb chart, 700 mb chart and 850 mb chart for weather forecasting?
 Satellites are also important.  Distinguish between the GOES and POES satellites.  What are the advantages of visible light imagery and thermal IR imagery?
Go to the image GOES16_CONUS_East_sandwich.png. Match the sites with the following situations. One site has two situations
 Site 1                          (a) Nimbostratus clouds

 Site 2                          (b) Towering Cumulonimbus Clouds

 Site 3                          (c) Some cumulonimbus clouds

                                    (d) Hurricane Iota

Using the Skew-T diagram p. 327 (ed. 14) or the electronic image Skew_T_dforced_lift.png. Calculate Lift Index Value.  Lift Index Value (LIV) = Ambient Temp @ 500mb – Temp @ 500mb of an adiabatically (forcibly) lifted parcel of air. What does this value mean?  See MS Word document LIV_K_values_PoP
K index = A – B

[([email protected] – Temp @ 500mb) + Tdew @ 850mb] = A

(Temp @ 700mb – Tdew @ 700mb) = B

Calculate the K-Index Value from p. 327 (ed.14). or the electronic image Skew_T_dforced_lift.png. What does is suggest relative to the probability of a thunderstorm occurring assuming that either frontal lifting and/or convectional lifting is strong enough to force air to rise and attain the LCL? Use the MS Word doc: LIV_K_Values_PoP
Recalculate the K value with a dewpoint 7°C higher (22°C/72°F) & issue a revised forecast with the new K value.  (show work)
You are flying a Boeing 737 from Chicago (ORD) to Seattle (SEA) and cruising at roughly 35,000 feet.  Using the NOAA 250 mb Chart describe the headwind or tail wind you will encounter.  Use NOAA’s wind_speed_chart to assist with velocity.
Examine the NOAA Weather Maps from 11/2/20 thru 11/8/2020.  Files DWM4520 & DWM 4620

Data for Minneapolis-St Paul (MSP)

hi         lo         hi         lo   (2020)

11/2                 49        33                                use 11/3 Hi/Lo Map for 11/2 data

11/3                 49        33                                use 11/4 Hi/Lo Map for 11/3 data

11/4                 48        32                                use 11/5 Hi/Lo Map for 11/4 data

11/5                 48        32                                use 11/6 Hi/Lo Map for 11/5 data

11/6                 47        31                                use 11/7 Hi/Lo Map for 11/6 data

11/7                 46        31                                use 11/8 Hi/Lo Map for 11/7 data

https://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/climate/twin_cities/ccnovember1981_2010.ht
13a.  Using the NOAA High-Low Temperature Maps, fill-in the data for MSP 2020.

13b.  How did 2020 differ relative to the 1981-2010 norms?

13c.  Describe how the 500 mb flow influenced the temperatures and the trend of temperature from 11/2 thru 11/7? 

13d. Issue a temperature forecast (daily high and Low) for MSP for Sunday 11/8/20.  Justify your forecast.  Was your forecast a type of persistence forecasting?  If yes, what exactly is persistence forecasting?

13e.  Look at the Hi/Lo Map 11/9/20.  How accurate was your temperature forecast?

Look at the Surface Weather Map from 11/14/20 and the associated 500 mb Chart (DWM4620).  Examine all the dew points and wind directions in the US Southeast, including Florida.  Where on this map would you draw dryline and why?
 On the Precipitation Map dated 11/6, where did it precipitate and how much?  Based on the Hi/Lo Map on 11/6 was this ppt mostly rain or snow? Defend.  Now look at the Surface Weather Map 11/5/20.  What type of uplift forces caused the precipitation? 
 Look at the Surface Weather Maps from 11/7 through 11/8/20.  Focus on the US Southwest (CA/NV/UT/CO/AZ and NM).  What major event occurred?  How far did this storm travel in 24 hours?  Look at the PPT Map on 11/8. Did this cold front result in significant precipitation?
Examine the Surface Weather Map from 11/8/20.  Find Roswell, NM and Amarillo, TX.  What are the temps and dewpoints on 11/8/20?  What were the hi-lo temps on the 11/8 map?  Go to the Surface Weather Map dated 11/10/20.  What happened to these temps and dewpoints?  Now look at the Hi-Lo Map for 11/11/20 what happened to the temperatures?  Why did these temperature changes happen?
11/8

Roswell, NM                Temp:              Dewpoint:                    Hi/Lo:

Amarillo, TX                Temp:              Dewpoint:                    Hi/Lo:

11/10

Roswell, NM                Temp:              Dewpoint:                   

Amarillo, TX                Temp:             Dewpoint:

Temperatures and dewpoints are lower on 11/10 than they were on 11/8.           

11/11

Roswell, NM                Hi/Lo:             

Amarillo, TX                Hi/Lo:

Surface Weather Map 11/8/20.  Again, look at Roswell, NM and Amarillo, TX.  What is the wind direction and velocity at each location? What are the air pressure readings?  Now, go to the Surface Weather Map dated 11/10/20.  What happened to wind direction and velocity?  What happened to air pressure?  Why did these changes occur?
11/8

Roswell            Direction:                    Velocity:          Pressure:

Amarillo          Direction:                    Velocity:          Pressure:

11/10

Roswell            Direction:                    Velocity:          Pressure:

Amarillo          Direction:                    Velocity:          Pressure:

Weather Analysis: Part II (15 points)

Hurricanes

 Go to the file Irma_2017.jpg  Notice on the Surface Weather Map and the 500 mb Chart that Hurricane Irma is about to curve north from the Cuban coast and make landfall in the FL Keys.  Notice the spiral bands have dumped heavy rain on Miami and South Fl in general.  Compare and contrast Irma (category 5 hurricane) to a typical middle latitude cyclone.
What factors are needed to generate a hurricane?  Even though they are tropical cyclones they are not found everywhere in the tropics.  Why?
Describe the basic structure of a hurricane featuring the eye, collar clouds and spiral bands. Use the Haiyan handout as a guide.  Include a diagram.
What are modes of inflicting damage based on a large category 4 or 5 hurricane?
Super Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on 11/7/2013.  See Haiyan.jpg. Why was this typhoon so strong? Recall the sea surface temperatures and upper level winds discussed in the video.
What made the storm surge so devastating?   See map of Tacloban.jpg
Part III: Tornadoes/Thunderstorms (25 points)

p. 280 (ed.14) and examine the map depicting the four cities:
 (a) Spokane WA (b) Indianapolis IN (c) Amarillo TX and (d) Augusta, ME.

1a. Which city is most likely to have tornadoes associated with a dry Line? Which city will likely have a tornado associated with frontal/convectional lifting?  Explain fully.

1b.  Which two cities are not likely to have tornadoes? Explain fully.

Deaths from tornadoes have dropped significantly since 1930 even though the number of reported tornadoes has risen steadily since 1950.  Similarly, deaths associated with lightning have fallen drastically since 1945 even though the incidence of thunderstorms has not declined.  See file tornado_worksheet.  Explain these situations.
What conditions are examined to classify a thunderstorm as “severe” by the National Weather Service.  How many of these conditions are needed for the NWS to classify a thunderstorm as “severe?”
 Super Cells typically generate severe weather and often form meso–scale convective complexes.  ow are these formedHHow is a Super Cell formed? Note the importance of a weak low-level inversion.  Discuss fully and Include a diagram.
Define a meso-scale convective complex?
If robust warm and humid surface southerly winds encounter strong westerlies aloft within a Super Cell, then what type of watch would you issue for an area downwind of this Super Cell? 
Define and explain entrainment.
In the NOVA video addressing the tornado season of 2011, Howard Bluestein of the University of Oklahoma constructed a portable Doppler unit.  Amongst his findings were the role of raindrops (especially their size) in forcing the vortex downwards.  How would this work in the context of accentuating entrainment?
 In the NOVA video on tornadoes, meteorologist Greg Carbine of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, mentioned that the April 2011 tornado outbreak that struck MS and AL was remarkably similar to a pattern he recalled from November 11, 2002.  He then used the November 2002 surface weather maps and upper air charts to help assess the potential severity of the impending April 2011 situation.  This is an example of (a) simulative. (b) analog forecasting.  
No Explanation.

Examine the NOAA data on Indiana tornadoes from 1950-2015.  Indiana has the most tornadoes of any Midwest state outside the Great Plains. Most tornadoes are (a) low intensity or (b) high intensity.  Most Killer tornadoes are (a) EF4/5 or (b) EF2/3.
No Explanation. See IN_tronadoes.jpg

Why is the peak season spring for tornadoes in Indiana?  See IN_tornadoes.jpg
Issue a weather bulletin for the ppt on the NEXRAD_SEA_11_18_20 Dopplar Radar Image scanned at .5° at 18:42 UTC (10:42 PST)
View The GOES17_water_vapor images.
20203231836 (band 8 upper troposphere water vapor). Year-day of year-UTC time

20203231831(band 9 middle troposphere water vapor)

20203231836 (band 10 lower troposphere water vapor).

Look at the Seattle area. Do these images support the ppt in the Dopplar Scan?

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