Time Series Data set

In this part you will use time series data to predict the trend of child mortality rate under the age of 5.  

Task:  Use time series to predict the child mortality rate under the age of 5 trend

1. Use Time series data set provided for the years 1986 – 2015 and choose any three countries (A, B and C) from the provided data; set A (LI country), B (MI country) and C (HI country) based on their GNI as per below criteria:
2. Low-Income countries (LI): countries with a GNI less than $1,000 per capita
3. Middle- Income countries (MI): countries with a GNI between $1,000 and $12,500 per capita.
4. High-Income countries (HI): countries with a GNI greater than $12,500 per capita.

 

Clearly mention the three countries used.

2. Build the Linear (LIN), Quadratic (QUA) and Exponential (EXP) trend models for each country (Countries A, B and C).

For every country’s each trend model (LIN / QUA / EXP)

1. Provide the regression output of ONLY the significant trend model in the report.
2. Provide the formula of ONLY the significant trend model.
3. Predict the child mortality rate under the age of 5, calculate the errors for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015.
4. Calculated the MAD and SSE

 

3. Based on the results found in 2):
4. Which trend model will you recommend to predict the child mortality rate under the age of 5 for Country A?
5. Which trend model will you recommend to predict the child mortality rate under the age of 5 for Country B?
6. Which trend model will you recommend to predict the child mortality rate under the age of 5 for Country C?

 

Explain your answers.

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